NOVEMBER 21, 2017

Wave of Predictions: The SMU Game

What the Prediction Models are saying about Tulane @ SMU

By JP Gooderham

Tulane Football -- the rightful heirs of the coveted Harambelt -- will take the show on the road this week to Dallas to face the 6-5 SMU Mustangs.

This game has mission critical implications, as the Wave pursues an historic opportunity to go... 1-0 this week, as they try to every week, as we will contemplate the implications later.

The Pony Express, which nowadays is a high-powered Chad Morris-fueled passing attack with often questionable interest in playing defense, has already clinched bowl eligibility -- and they did that on Oct. 27 in a 38-34 win over Tulsa (good!).

Less good: they have played the nasty part of their slate with UCF for Homecoming (tough one), Navy, and Memphis last week adding up in the loss column.

Here's a breakdown on what various outlets/models are predicting for this game.

Predictions from the Web

1. S&P+ / SB Nation, Bill Connelly | SMU

Tulane has a 32% chance of winning. Bill C predicts a 37-30 win for the Mustangs (Link)


The FEI model has been bullish on the Green Wave all year, and they give SMU an edge but have it close -- 32-27 SMU with a 37% chance of Wave victory. (Link)


ESPN's system hasn't liked the Green Wave lately. They don't do score predictions, but they like Tulane to win this just 27.8% of the time -- a bit lower than the others. (Link)


The Mustangs opened as a 7.5 point favorite, and that has moved slightly against the Wave to Tulane +8. (Link)

CONSENSUS: SMU EDGE - Wave wins about 1 of every 3 times